There’s something super interesting happening
in the 2020 Democratic primary.
I alluded to it in the last segment.
Elizabeth Warren has sort of quietly and steadily
surged into second place in the 2020 Democratic
primary polling and maybe just as interestingly
is now tied for first place in what are called
the prediction markets for the 2020 Democratic
I’ll get to that.
This came up yesterday during my twitch live
There’s another twitch live stream happening
this evening, 6:30 PM eastern time.
I hope you’ll join me at twitch.tv/david Pacman
Ask people who do you support prediction markets?
Ask people who do you believe will win regardless
of who you support.
And often those are more accurate.
So first, let’s look at the polling I told
you months ago.
Elizabeth Warren is not doing anything flashy
but she is slowly but surely gaining about
one-to-one and a half points per month in
polling and she’s doing it not with debate,
kill shot attempts or ad hominems.
She’s doing it with policy and talking to
voters including in red parts of the country.
She put out last week a detailed internet
public option policy.
She put out a detailed healthcare policy education
policy I just outlined for you her gun safety
regulation policy and she has just continued
to plug away and pick up about a point to
a point and a half per month and she is now
more solidly entering second place.
As you can see on screen, if you’re watching
Joe Biden is still in first place, but as
dropped a bit in the last week, Elizabeth
Warren is now up to 18% with Bernie Sanders
behind her at 16.8 it’s still very close.
Some would argue within the margin of error,
although when you average polls, the margin
of error calculation becomes a little different.
But the trend has been Bernie steady Joe falling
Elizabeth Warren slowly but surely climbing
now, just as interestingly, Elizabeth Warren
has tied to Joe Biden for Perth first place
in the prediction markets right now, if you
go to the website, predicted the money is
even on Biden versus Warren.
Now, there are some other questions here because
some of these other numbers don’t make much
You’ll see that in this particular prediction
market, uh, Andrew Yang seems a bit high given
where he’s polling Tulsi Gabard seems a bit
high given where she’s polling.
She may not even make the third debate.
Kamala Harris is also probably too high.
Bernie may be too low, but Elizabeth Warren
clearly has momentum and the prediction markets
are seeing it.
In fact, yesterday Elizabeth Warren was ahead
of Biden solely in first place.
Now she’s back into a tie with Biden in the
Imagine what kind of a relief it would be
to the world if we had Elizabeth Warren or
a Bernie Sanders as president of the United
I don’t think right-wingers realize this,
or if they do, they certainly don’t care.
Even if right-wingers are against some of
the policies of Warren and Sanders, nationalized
healthcare, single payer, some version of
it, not Cajun kids or whatever.
Do they understand, do you think that the
United States around the world would be reinvigorated
drastically in terms of our reputation?
If Trump were to be replaced by someone like
Warren or Sanders, I know that they do all
the talking points and we will never be a
Get these Socialists Outta here.
They of course have no clue what socialism
I understand that they say all of that stuff,
but do you think they realize that the United
States is suffering such a reputational deficit
and alliance deficit right now?
Uh, I don’t know if they do and if they do
I think a lot of the trumpets think if other
countries dislike us, it’s probably because
we’re doing great things for ourselves.
I mean, they participate in this bizarre,
childish sort of zero sum mentality.
And one thing that’s appealing about Warren
relative to Biden and Bernie and Trump, which
may actually be to her advantage if she ultimately
is the nominee, uh, is that she is quite a
bit younger than Biden and Bernie and Trump.
And that is an issue that is coming up more
Let me know what you think number one about
Elizabeth Warren’s trajectory here.
Number two, about looking at prediction markets
versus, or in addition to, uh, election polls.
Let me know what you think about Warren’s
age relative to some of these other front
runners and Donald Trump.
Uh, and we’ll do, we’ll continue to do a follow
up and track this information.
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show on Instagram at David Pakman show.
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Pacman updated tomato progress pictures.
I have way more tomatoes growing in my backyard
now and I think that now they’re in the several
Uh, the plants still don’t look great because
I’m clueless, but I do have more tomatoes
and you can see that in my latest stories.
Uh, on my Instagram page at David doc pact.
We’ll be right back.